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Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Mt. Gox 2.0

I recently read in a few places that some bitcoins held by Mt. Gox lawyers are currently being sold off.  I am not totally sure but the number may be as high as 180,000 bitcoins.  If this is true then it would explain why the price has been suppressed lately.  In this case I would expect a bear market until they are sold off, or at least a sideways market.

Also bitcoin has been suspiciously stable since wall street joined the party.  One of the major reasons cited by the SEC for not approving bitcoin ETFs was volatility.  Because of the very limited supply and high demand, volatility should be expected.  However the price has pretty solid between 8k and 10k.  I suspect that large players are working behind the scenes to stabilize the price, but I have no real way to prove this.  There is strange activity on the exchanges.  I see constant spoofing: for example a 50 btc sell order is placed at the ask price, but quickly disappears without being filled, especially if the market starts to move up.  This can trick trading bots and push the price down.  When the price is low, I see the opposite on the buy side.

I am still bullish long term.  The next year or so, or however long it takes for the Mt. Gox coins to be sold, may offer significant buying opportunities.  I doubt they will dump all of those coins at once.  Doing so would temporarily crash the market and cost them lots of money.  Rather I expect them to sell over time to get the best possible price.  From what I understand they are selling off bitcoins to pay legal obligations related to the failure of the exchange.  Since bitcoin was much cheaper when Mt. Gox failed in 2014, it is possible that they may not need to sell all of the coins to cover legal obligations.

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